HOW LONG can a pilot who has no instrument

HOW LONG can a pilot who has no instrument training expect to live after he flies into bad weather and loses visual contact?

Researchers at the University of Illinois found the answer.Twenty student “guinea pigs” flew into simulated instrument weather and all went into “graveyard spirals”. The outcomediffered in only one respect - the time required until control was lost. The interval ranged from 480 seconds to 20 seconds.The average time was 178 seconds - two seconds short of three minutes.

FATAL SCENARIOThe sky is overcast and the visibility poor. The reported five-mile visibility looks more like two and you cannot judge theheight of the overcast.Your altimeter says you are at 1 500 feet, but your map tells you there is local terrain as high as 1 200 feet. There mighteven be a radio or TV tower nearby because you are not sure just how far off course you are - but you have flown into worse weather than this so you press on.You find yourself unconsciously easing back just a bit on the controls to clear those none-too-imaginary towers.

With no warning you are in the "soup". You peer so hard into the milk white mist that your eyes hurt. You fight thefeeling in your stomach. You swallow, only to find your mouth dry.Now you realise you should have waited for better weather. The appointment was important - but not that important!Somewhere a voice is saying: “You've had it. It’s all over!”

178 SECONDS TO LIVE

Your aircraft feels on an even keel, but your compass turns slowly.You push a little rudder and add a little pressure on the controls, but this feels unnatural and you return the controls to theiroriginal position.This feels better, but your compass is now turning a little faster and your airspeed is increasing slightly. If you are ever tempted to take off in marginal weather and have no instrument training read this article first before you go.If you decide to go anyway and lose visual contact, start counting down from 178 seconds....You scan your instrument panel for help, but what you see looks somewhat unfamiliar. You are sure this is just a badspot. You'll break out in a few minutes - but you do not have those minutes left.

100 SECONDS TO LIVE

Now you have 100 seconds to live. You glance at your altimeter and are shocked to see how it is unwinding.You are already down to 1 200 feet. Instinctively you pull back on the controls, but the altimeter still unwinds - faster now.The engine revs are into the red, and the airspeed nearly so.

45 SECONDS TO LIVE

You have 45 seconds to live. Now you are sweating and shaking.There must be something wrong with the controls; pulling back only moves that airspeed indicator further into the red. Youcan hear the wind tearing at the aircraft.

10 SECONDS

You have 10 seconds to live. Suddenly, you see the ground.The trees rush up at you. You can see the horizon if you turn your head far enough, but it is at an unusual angle - you arealmost inverted.You open your mouth to scream, but …… you have no seconds left!

Is it worth it?